US Tariffs on India: Catalyzing an India-China-Russia Alliance?

The imposition of steep tariffs by the United States on India in late August 2025 has reverberated through the global economic and geopolitical corridors, prompting a swift recalibration of alliances in the Eurasian sphere. On August 27, 2025, the US administration enacted 50% tariffs on most Indian imports - comprising an initial 25% reciprocal tariff from early August and an additional 25% penalty for India's purchases of Russian oil - targeting sectors such as textiles, gems, jewelry, and leather goods that constitute nearly 60% of India's $87 billion annual exports to the US. This move takes the effective US tariff rate on India to around 33%, which is much higher than most of its other Asian peers. Amid this economic coercion, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit held in Tianjin, China, from August 31 to September 1, 2025, emerged as a pivotal forum. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled a thaw in relations and the formation of a nascent trilateral alliance. We examine the US tariffs' role in fostering closer India-China ties, the evolving India-China-Russia partnership, and its profound implications for diminishing US global hegemony.

Tariffs' as a Catalyst: An India-China Thaw

The US tariffs have inadvertently driven India and China toward reconciliation, transforming economic adversity into a strategic opportunity. Historically strained by persistent border clashes, culminating in the 2020 Galwan Valley clash that killed 20 Indian soldiers and froze ties, India-China relations have since seen slow, incremental progress, including troop disengagements in 2024. However, the US administration’s tariffs - higher than those on China (30%) or Vietnam (20%) - exposed India's vulnerabilities, prompting Beijing to extend olive branches, including a red-carpet invitation to Prime Minister Modi to visit China for the first time in seven years to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin. During the summit, Xi and Modi agreed that stable bilateral ties are essential to safeguard common interests. Discussions focused on resuming direct flights, easing visas, and reviving the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage, alongside border patrolling agreements to ensure peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). 

Economically, the US tariffs threaten India's manufacturing ambitions under "Make in India," with competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh poised to capture US market share. China, facing its own US trade frictions, views India as a potential counterweight. Bilateral trade, already at $135 billion in 2024, could expand through joint ventures in renewables and infrastructure, reducing India's reliance on Western markets. The SCO platform could allow India to diversify exports toward Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, while leveraging China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for connectivity. This thaw is pragmatic: India seeks cheaper Chinese inputs to offset tariff costs, while China aims to peel India away from the Quad (US, Australia, India, Japan) and gain access to one of the fastest growing consumer markets. Yet challenges persist - mainly India's insistence on addressing cross-border terrorism, often linked to Pakistan (also an SCO member). Nonetheless, the tariffs have compelled a mutual recognition that confrontation benefits neither, fostering a "partners, not rivals" ethos and to “have the dragon and the elephant dance together”, as Xi stated.

Tianjin and the Triad: India-China-Russia in Focus

The Tianjin SCO Summit crystallized the formation of an India-China-Russia axis, blending economic resilience with strategic autonomy. The SCO, founded in 2001 by China, Russia, and Central Asian states, now encompasses 10 full members representing 43% of global population and 23% of GDP, evolving from a security forum to a counterweight against Western dominance. At Tianjin, Modi, Xi, and Putin - were joined by more than 20 leaders, including Iran's Masoud Pezeshkian and Pakistan's Shehbaz Sharif. Putin hailed the SCO as a shaper of a "fairer multipolar world," while Modi emphasized "connectivity without coercion" and terrorism condemnation.

Trilateral dynamics are pivotal. Russia-India ties remain robust, with bilateral trade hitting $65 billion in 2024, fueled by India’s purchase of discounted Russian oil. Putin and Modi discussed defense cooperation, including S-400 systems, and BRICS expansion, where India hosts the 2026 summit. The trio's RIC (Russia-India-China) format, dormant since 2000s tensions, was revived informally, focusing on Global South advocacy. This alliance is not seamless - India's Quad membership and border disputes with China create friction - but shared US pressures unify them. Tariffs on BRICS nations (50% on India/Brazil vs. lower on others) have galvanized the bloc. The summit condemned unilateral sanctions, implicitly targeting Trump, and promoted alternatives like the BRICS Grain Exchange. Economically, RIC could integrate China’s BRI with India's Act East Policy and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union, potentially fostering a $64.7 trillion GDP bloc (PPP) surpassing G7's $43.9 trillion.

Implications for US Hegemony

The burgeoning India-China-Russia alliance poses an existential challenge to US hegemony, accelerating a shift toward multipolarity. The US, with its post-WWII dominance via institutions like the IMF and NATO, now faces a united front eroding its leverage. BRICS/SCO control 35% of global GDP (vs. G7's 27%), advocating de-dollarization - Russia-China trade is already transacted 90% in ruble-yuan, reducing SWIFT reliance. Geopolitically, the trio amplifies Global South voices, with SCO/BRICS condemning "hegemonism" and pushing reforms in UN/IMF. Trump's tariffs, intended to isolate rivals, have potentially backfired, forging solidarity. Militarily, a formal RIC pact could enable two-front threats: Russia in Europe, China in Indo-Pacific, with India hedging but potentially tipping balances. 

Yet, vulnerabilities exist: internal SCO frictions (India-Pakistan, India-China borders) and economic disparities limit cohesion. The US retains advantages in technology and alliances, but alienation risks - via tariffs - hasten decline. As the world transitions from unipolarity, Washington must recalibrate - prioritizing engagement over isolation - to mitigate erosion of its influence. For India, balancing RIC with Quad ties exemplifies strategic agility, but sustained peace with China remains key. Ultimately, Tianjin summit's outcomes signal a more contested, fragmented global order, where US primacy is no longer assured. Evolution of this transition could have far-reaching impact in global financial markets with the establishment of new trading paradigms.