Earlier this month, markets and risk managers alike were taken aback, not by a data miss or a surprise central bank rate cut, but by an institutional shock. Late on January 11, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell released a video statement saying that the U.S. Department of Justice had served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, and that he faced the threat of criminal indictment regarding his prior testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on cost overruns tied to renovations of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Powell framed the threat as politically motivated, a pretext to punish the central bank for resisting presidential demands on interest rates, and to weaken the Fed’s constitutionally protected independence.

Such a clash between the executive branch and the central bank’s boss would be remarkable in any nation - but in the United States, with one of the world’s most established institutional frameworks, it is almost unheard of. No modern developed economy has seen the head of its central bank face criminal investigation tied to monetary policy independence. To understand the potential economic fallout, we need only to look at to two interesting precedents: Turkey and the UK.

Turkey: When monetary policy becomes a political instrument

A cautionary example is close at hand: Turkey. Over the past decade, Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has increasingly aligned monetary policy with political objectives. Erdoğan had repeatedly attempted to influence interest rates, dismissing and replacing central bankers who resisted rate cuts, culminating in a dramatic collapse of the Turkish lira and spiralling inflation. The erosion of central bank independence was not merely academic; it translated into severe currency weakness, higher borrowing costs and economic instability that reverberated through emerging market asset classes. Turkey’s experience demonstrates how political control over monetary policy can upend price stability and investor confidence, risks that may seem distant but become very real once norms are broken.

The UK: Independence and credibility

The UK offers a contrasting lesson. Prior to the Bank of England’s operational independence in 1997, the country routinely experienced higher inflation rates than its peers, driven in part by fiscal and political cycles that pressured the central bank to accommodate short-term objectives. After independence, inflation expectations became better anchored, and markets rewarded credibility with tighter spreads and greater predictability.

This example provides a simple lesson: credibility matters. Compromising it isn’t just a political act, it has quantifiable consequences for volatility, rates pricing, and currency stability. The legal pressure on Powell – whether it succeeds or simply appears credible – risks undermining this same credibility. On paper, the Fed’s mandate has not changed, but its perceived insulation from politics is now under strain.

Market reaction so far

Despite all of the uncertainty, the initial market reaction has been surprisingly muted. In the hours and days following Powell’s video and the accompanying news of subpoenas, FX and rates have barely budged. This suggests markets are either unconvinced the legal pressure will materially alter policy, or they’ve been reassured by the instant and vocal support for the Fed’s independence.

The responses have been broad and bipartisan. Former Fed chairs and governors - a roster including figures appointed by both Republican and Democratic administrations - publicly condemned the investigation as a threat to the institution’s independence. CEOs like Jamie Dimon warned that the probe jeopardises confidence and could raise inflation expectations. Central banks including the Bank of England and European Central Bank issued joint statements in “full solidarity” with Powell, emphasising that central bank independence underpins economic stability. Even figures in the US President’s own party, such as Senator Thom Tillis, described the move as damaging and pledged to block new Fed nominations until the issue is resolved.

This unusual convergence of voices has arguably undercut the initial legal thrust. With the Administration’s critics and allies alike warning of the dangerous precedent, markets seem to have concluded that this confrontation won’t immediately upend monetary policy or elevate inflation risk, at least for now.

Powell’s pre-emptive transparency and the broad coalition defending the Fed’s autonomy may have blunted the blow. The market’s calm suggests a current belief that institutions may ultimately prevail over political brinkmanship.

Risk managers: Watch closely

Historical examples, including Turkey and the UK, remind us that when monetary policy is aligned to political aims, the consequences can be severe and persistent.

The current situation marks a potential inflection point for the norms that have governed developed economies for decades. The legal targeting of a sitting central bank chair shakes assumptions about where political boundaries lie.

If the music stops and investors begin to doubt the Fed’s ability to operate free of political pressure, then markets may re-price inflation expectations, demand higher term premiums and revisit FX expectations. The world is watching, and risk managers must watch closely too, ready to adapt should this unprecedented episode evolve from political theatre to economic reality.